When China and the US clash, access to critical raw materials and inputs can be cut off. The defence sector is meant to safeguard society but faces new and significant risks in the coming decades, says Tarald Fidjeland, advisor in strategy, communications and public affairs at Sopra Steria Norway.
At the start of the year, it became clear that China is banning exports to 28 American weapons manufacturers. This marks an escalation in Beijing's response to US export restrictions on high technology. Chinese companies are already prohibited from exporting gallium, germanium, antimony, and other raw materials used in high-tech production, including for military purposes.
Protectionism is a grim sign of the times. The great powers are building tariff walls and imposing restrictions. The trade war was already underway even before Donald Trump was re-elected and imposed tariffs early in February 2025.
Geopolitical turbulence is hitting the defence sector hard. This is dramatic for Norway and our allies. So far, there has been little public debate about the extensive changes the sector is facing, especially regarding energy transitions, infrastructure, and value and supply chains.
A complex and multifaceted situation
The green transition in the defence sector is, to put it mildly, complex. Equipment, procurement, and investments cannot come at the expense of operational capability. There is war on the continent, and Norway is an important energy supplier to Europe.
Nevertheless, the Armed Forces have made significant climate and environmental efforts in recent years. In Norway, The Military Professional Council outlines plans for zero-emission bases with energy systems for production and storage and a long-term reduction of fossil fuel use. The defence's long-term plan is preparing Norway for a new geopolitical reality. It effectively describes how acquisitions with long time horizons must keep pace with technological developments. These trends point towards lower emissions and facilitate the phasing out of fossil energy.
Understanding the problems and awareness are important. However, the impression remains that the plans and reports do not fully reflect the seriousness of the long-term phasing out of fossil energy sources, which will be a much less available resource by 2040.
This raises questions about the sector's long-term preparedness and adaptability. What are the answers to these developments and changes?
Thorough risk analyses
Problems can quickly escalate, especially when the issues are so complex. A transition that does not compromise operational capability requires robust value chains. The ownership and control over strategic infrastructure, resources, and value chains is currently dominated by China, as highlighted in the Norwegian defence chief’s assessment of the situation.
That’s not all. The climate changes we are trying to combat disrupt various parts of supply chains, such as mineral extraction, process industries, and food production worldwide.
Climate change is a threat multiplier, as former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg stated last year. It increases the risk of war, conflict, and geopolitical unrest.
Yet, the Armed Forces' analyses of how this may affect their operational capability and preparedness seem somewhat inadequate. Growing geopolitical tensions, competition over supply and value chains, and climate-related challenges mean we can no longer rely on "business as usual."
To strengthen our national security in the face of these challenges, thorough risk analyses of global supply chains and their vulnerability to climate change and geopolitical tensions should be fundamental.
Preparedness plans for scenarios where fossil fuels, critical minerals, or other essential inputs become unavailable or severely limited should be established.
A new approach to transition and security
The defence sector is now accelerating its energy transition to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. A strategic approach that includes developing local energy communities at military bases helps strengthen energy security.
To manage new and complex threat landscapes, closer cooperation between the defence sector and civilian actors is crucial. This collaboration can ensure access to critical resources and technologies during crises and reduce vulnerabilities in supply chains.
Therefore, we must rethink national security. The energy transition, changes in global value chains, and climate change require more comprehensive risk analyses than before.
In a time marked by uncertainty and rapid change, the defence sector keeps us safe. But only by maintaining the same pace of change as the world around us can our national security and freedom of action be preserved, both now and in the future.